What types of information are needed for adaptation decision making?

Any decision maker advancing climate change adaptation interventions will need adequate and accurate information to make effective choices. In particular, they need the right types of data and knowledge about the climate risk at hand, the vulnerability of exposed populations, adaptation options, and a number of other factors.

Specific information needs will vary from situation to situation and are likely to be shaped by the type of climate risk being addressed and the response it requires. Some risks will come as a surprise (e.g. weather-related disasters) and will require responsive efforts. Others will occur over a longer time scale  (e.g. eventual sea level rise) and will require proactive policies and plans. And while some risks will be well understood, others will be highly uncertain and will require robust approaches that can handle multiple possible futures.

We present three examples below which are representative of these different types of climate risks.  For each, we ask authors to reflect upon the information needs for advancing adaptation efforts in that situation. We are curious to hear your thoughts on how information needs vary according to the nature of the risk at hand, as well as what information may be needed regardless of the type of risk being addressed.

1.      Information needs for responsive policymaking/planning

Recent flooding in Pakistan during the summer of 2010 displaced millions, killed almost 2000 people, and set back numerous development goals. While this one event cannot be directly attributed to climate change, extreme events like this are likely to become increasingly frequent. Decision makers will need to respond quickly to such surprises.

• What information sets are most useful in responding to such changes?  Please also consider non-climatic data in your response.
• How much/what types of information are sufficient before an adaptation intervention can be advanced?
• What stakeholders should be involved in determining these information needs? How can decision makers strike a balance between an inclusive, participatory approach to defining information needs – which will lend legitimacy to response activities – while reacting quickly to the situation at hand?

2.      Information needs for proactive policymaking/planning

Three West African coastal cities are each projected to hold more than eight million people by 2015. Sea level rise is projected to significantly impact these megacities (Boko et al. 2007). Even if risks from sea level rise manifest themselves decades later, policymakers will need to take steps today to enhance the resilience of these coastal inhabitants. For example, urban areas may need to be redesigned to reduce vulnerabilities of concentrated populations to projected storm surges and floods, and planners may need to prepare for the restructuring of entire sectors (such as aquaculture) that are no longer viable in a changing climate.

• What information sets are most useful in preparing for such likely eventual changes?  Please also consider non-climatic data in your response.
• How much/what types of information are sufficient before an adaptation intervention can be advanced?
• What stakeholders should be involved in determining these information needs?

3.      Information needs for robust policymaking/planning

In Europe, large glaciers are projected to lose between 30% and 70% of their volume by mid-century (Schneeberger et al., 2003; Paul et al., 2004), which will significantly affect spring and summer water discharge levels.  Water users and planners will have to be prepared for both   extremes within this range.

• Given the uncertainty inherent in the projected impacts, what information sets are most useful in preparing for such eventual changes?  Please also consider non-climatic data in your response.
• How much/what types of information are sufficient before an adaptation intervention can be advanced?
• What stakeholders should be involved in determining these information needs?

In addition to the above questions, we ask authors to reflect upon the extent to which information needs vary among the above examples. In other words:

• Do information needs vary depending on whether the risk is a surprise versus a long-term threat?
• Do information needs vary if there is less certainty about the risk?

Expert Perspectives

Roger Street

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This paper describes the conditions for information to be useful in decision making about climate change adaptation.  The author argues that decision-relevant information should match the...
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Sives Govender

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This paper describes some current initiatives in Africa to counter climate change before specifying the information needs required for responsive, proactive and robust policy making and planning for...
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Amos Makarau

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This paper describes the basic non-climatic data that can assist decision makers in taking protective measures against high likelihood climate change impacts. It then describes in detail the...
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Molly Hellmuth

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The ability to manage climate risk is a measure of development. Proactive policymaking and planning means taking action now to prevent and/or reduce future anticipated impacts, and can include no...
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Diana Liverman

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This paper identifies the types of information most needed in order to deal with the impacts of climate change: basic climate information, economic costs and benefits of adaptation, adaptation...
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